Profit screenshots, 90% win rates, "financial freedom in 30 days". This page gives you the tools to dismantle everything — including my numbers. Especially my numbers.
Four interactive tools from the book. Enter the numbers of any system — for sale, in demo, or on your own account — and see what the math says.
The test that exposes 90% of scam systems. How much do you win on average when you win, how much do you lose when you lose? From there comes the minimum win rate not to lose — before costs.
The only equation that matters: E = (win rate × avg win) − (loss rate × avg loss) − costs. If you don't compute it, someone else will collect it for you.
Enter the showcase numbers of any system for sale. The automatic check flags the classic red flags: grids, martingales, lack of hostile-regime testing, unrecoverable drawdowns.
My bot closed 50 trades at −$127.02: the market took $8.54, the broker $118.48. Simulate your cost structure before your account statement does.
A screenshot is not a track record: it's a chosen frame. Without a third-party-verified account (Myfxbook with trading privileges), without the drawdown, without knowing how many accounts you are NOT being shown (survivorship bias), you're not looking at a result: you're looking at an advertisement.
"It wins 90% of the time!" — and when it loses? The mountain of small wins paying for rare, enormous losses is the statistical signature of grids, martingales and averaging down: hidden tail-risk strategies that pass challenges in bursts and then hand the tail to you. The win rate is the bait; the tail is the hook.
Equity curves smooth as lines are almost always memory dressed up as prediction: parameters optimized on past noise (overfitting), "courtesy" costs, look-ahead. Questions to ask: is there an out-of-sample never touched during development? Does the system survive parameters perturbed by ±20%? How many ideas were discarded to arrive at this one?
If the edge really existed, it would scale better on capital than on subscriptions. Whoever has a profitable system and sells you the signal for €50/month has done the math: you are the yield. Demand the numbers: net expectancy, max drawdown with its date, verified real account. Whoever takes offense at the request has already answered.
Generative AI used as an oracle ("give me a winning strategy") is the most efficient way ever invented to industrialize overfitting: it produces perfect code on premises never verified. I systematically tested the "AI filter" on 210,240 bars: there was nothing to learn — a classifier on signal-free features only manufactures well-polished illusions.
My real account made +458%. Impressive? The drawdown was 72%: at one point nearly all the gain had evaporated. Gain says how well it went; drawdown says how close you came to ruin. Whoever shows you only the first number has chosen for you which half of the truth you deserve.
Want the full version, with real cases dismantled number by number?